Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13993

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13992, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13993
    29 Oct 2026, 10:26 UTC

    ANTXRL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANTXRL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered562adc3f8ff9c05a

    discovery+0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    def54205dc1d6d6fb13ae6fe…
    follows 872f981ce6f6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13993: ANTXRL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANTXRL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.