Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13988

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13987, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13988
    29 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    CDC45

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDC45 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered328971b5bc5f52e7

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0387a37cdda959eaae6acb71…
    follows 31e464c449b8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13988: CDC45 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDC45 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.