Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13986

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13985, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13986
    29 Oct 2026, 10:18 UTC

    B3GNT4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionB3GNT4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd22c21f148bbb082

    discovery-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1fbc5c7e5a6a71b0c2fbcae0…
    follows 7346c4e93e13…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13986: B3GNT4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GNT4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.