Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13975

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13974, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13975
    29 Oct 2026, 10:01 UTC

    RASL11B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRASL11B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered96372e1c4f2d973e

    discovery-0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    902529a66381e25af4c2d3bc…
    follows b4e9b34f3a98…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13975: RASL11B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.16, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASL11B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.