Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13956

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13955, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13956
    29 Oct 2026, 09:34 UTC

    SLC44A4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC44A4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede61c72f5f13dca23

    discovery-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d9b823cd71eeffe537f2f955…
    follows 59bb7775fb9a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13956: SLC44A4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC44A4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.