Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13954

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.599). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13953, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13954
    29 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC

    CTNNBIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTNNBIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered35c5d6b78fe16957

    discovery+0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.599)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9bdc64a32f7f72b42fab3653…
    follows c51f07d64111…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13954: CTNNBIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNNBIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.