Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13946

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.034; held-out +0.36 p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13945, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13946
    29 Oct 2026, 09:20 UTC

    GPX8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPX8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba2ec0e9c53f68b2

    discovery+0.70 p=0.034 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.034; held-out +0.36 p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6fc2e5794d951d4599cb5a1f…
    follows 5d179a636a4d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13946: GPX8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPX8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.