Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13944

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13943, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13944
    29 Oct 2026, 09:17 UTC

    SELENON

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSELENON in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5e4172f8c874a17

    discovery-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    62e6ead6dac1e9521091a5d1…
    follows fc64604d3002…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13944: SELENON in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELENON in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.