Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13942

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13941, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13942
    29 Oct 2026, 09:14 UTC

    BLM

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionBLM in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered467dd11eb11bac2e

    discovery-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ff82a799369bf8d595fd8e0…
    follows b0af0a334072…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13942: BLM in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BLM in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.