Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13917

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.03 p 0.929). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13916, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13917
    29 Oct 2026, 08:38 UTC

    GALNT6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGALNT6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c3304e5a778cab2

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0058 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.03 p 0.929)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    517bc424ae2f37df6be62614…
    follows bb9e660dbebe…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13917: GALNT6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.77 (p 1.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.49 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GALNT6 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GALNT6 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.47 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.7e-4)