Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13907

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13906, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13907
    29 Oct 2026, 08:24 UTC

    ZNF664

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF664 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredebfa258c7a220607

    discovery-0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87a9bce56f3468aef12fe752…
    follows 2a06fcd27e35…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13907: ZNF664 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF664 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.