Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13903

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13902, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13903
    29 Oct 2026, 08:19 UTC

    GCNT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGCNT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77dca6d1b4d31afa

    discovery+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d28d90106864932c27b8d0d3…
    follows e7d91e9aa30f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13903: GCNT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.23, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GCNT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.