Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13900

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13899, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13900
    29 Oct 2026, 08:16 UTC

    TBCD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBCD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1fd3efd6dc85051

    discovery-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1984222716b6bf86636f8168…
    follows 6abaa0e4b57f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13900: TBCD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBCD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.