Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13898
    29 Oct 2026, 08:13 UTC

    PSMG3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMG3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6aa4777a54a3889

    discovery-0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    81d42ef7bdb8ed21cb4c060a…
    follows 8ff63a792ecb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13898: PSMG3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.16, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMG3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.