Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13896

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13895, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13896
    29 Oct 2026, 08:11 UTC

    RAB11FIP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAB11FIP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f9b291a8edddd8c

    discovery+0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e547a5d188c71db419943cff…
    follows 5a5b11b4be17…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13896: RAB11FIP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB11FIP3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RAB11FIP3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.82 p 0.0034 (needs p < 1.7e-4)