Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13888

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13887, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13888
    29 Oct 2026, 07:59 UTC

    DUOX2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUOX2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered84e4a0a6436e37f4

    discovery-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    be71813330405135f8dce4dd…
    follows 12a06725140c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13888: DUOX2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUOX2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.