Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13878

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13877, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13878
    29 Oct 2026, 07:46 UTC

    GOLGA5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGOLGA5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered926bf332eabd110f

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    376808e2308fa0a2747266b2…
    follows beb591073add…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13878: GOLGA5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.78 (p 1.6e-4, n 18) vs +0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GOLGA5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GOLGA5 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.7e-4)