Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13874

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13873, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13874
    29 Oct 2026, 07:40 UTC

    SPRR2G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPRR2G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc89d863cd2b5f2e9

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2862049f69e5428546ab57ba…
    follows 866da7a54057…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13874: SPRR2G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.23, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPRR2G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.