Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13872

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13871, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13872
    29 Oct 2026, 07:37 UTC

    SLC25A22

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC25A22 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbb47e259250a7010

    discovery-0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b654af2369b549fbe3d20765…
    follows d74a5d284b13…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13872: SLC25A22 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.03, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A22 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.