Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1387

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.266). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1386, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1387
    17 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC

    ACP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4d2878b94b8808a6

    discovery-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.266)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dd5d485b774d8a129ab23b75…
    follows 9eee4baf0ccc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1387: ACP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.