Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13863

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.584). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13862, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13863
    29 Oct 2026, 07:26 UTC

    FTCDNL1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionFTCDNL1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered781c8dc90e344520

    discovery-0.21 p=0.584 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.584)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    95ec012d247f6cd036bfc667…
    follows 35faadea3e62…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13863: FTCDNL1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FTCDNL1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.