Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13855

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13854, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13855
    29 Oct 2026, 07:15 UTC

    EPHA6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPHA6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered040784e6c0f3b4f8

    discovery+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69904ef4baec021b30085a01…
    follows 86a237e153d2…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13855: EPHA6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.42 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPHA6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.