Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13851

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.26 p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13850, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13851
    29 Oct 2026, 07:10 UTC

    UVRAG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUVRAG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered11e6a16d20f6e4fe

    discovery+0.74 p=0.022 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.022; held-out -0.26 p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    f0e4e1977934cca9af77c410…
    follows 26524a6fe729…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13851: UVRAG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UVRAG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.