Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13842

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13841, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13842
    29 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC

    ZNF155

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF155 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered459533986be76122

    discovery-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    923c937208cb5da8b6e1823e…
    follows 88b091d6b4bb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13842: ZNF155 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF155 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.