Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13821

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13820, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13821
    29 Oct 2026, 06:28 UTC

    FBXW8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXW8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered43e591e9d6d478f2

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b896937eddf0eb70602cc406…
    follows 686fe927a4cb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13821: FBXW8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXW8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.