Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13813

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13812, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13813
    29 Oct 2026, 06:17 UTC

    PPM1N

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPM1N in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered96ba56d0b5974d1a

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9849b3c3994bee92cbfbc282…
    follows 4a75bc5f7661…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13813: PPM1N in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1N in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.