Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13807

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.430). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13806, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13807
    29 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC

    RAP2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAP2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a933fb09df09ed6

    discovery-0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.430)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bed68adce0628a55991d5b70…
    follows f4e1eedb0730…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13807: RAP2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.08, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAP2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.