Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13805

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.121). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13804, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13805
    29 Oct 2026, 06:06 UTC

    SLITRK6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLITRK6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered738eec4cae0c961e

    discovery+0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.121)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47df7a01c667d9ceb1582c68…
    follows 204df97e90cb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13805: SLITRK6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLITRK6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.