Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13803

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.292). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13802, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13803
    29 Oct 2026, 06:03 UTC

    ARL13B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL13B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6eba9cbeb51a8223

    discovery-0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.292)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    74ae77752cadde2716fdce20…
    follows b7da9aa7a004…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13803: ARL13B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL13B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.