Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1380

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.38 p 0.316). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1379, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1380
    17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC

    WNT3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionWNT3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf9acb26382861a52

    discovery-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.316 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.38 p 0.316)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    79635874a21cf86813034f67…
    follows 5ca2c81bedbe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1380: WNT3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.