Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0138

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.399). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 137, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0138
    16 Oct 2026, 17:26 UTC

    NDUFB9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDUFB9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered90e977b67c9162f1

    discovery-0.13 p=0.399 n=42

    replication+0.09 p=0.560 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.399)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ef9d73d871dfd19842e9caa…
    follows d7c4823a5698…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0138: NDUFB9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.841, n 84), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.19. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.03 (p 0.769, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.840, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.01, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.784, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDUFB9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.