Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13799

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13798, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13799
    29 Oct 2026, 05:58 UTC

    GALNT14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGALNT14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a802018995c9a07

    discovery-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ebdb9bd218cd344264c3bd5a…
    follows 676d8ca3af1c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13799: GALNT14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GALNT14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.