Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13793

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13792, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13793
    29 Oct 2026, 05:50 UTC

    ZNF195

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF195 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9da961f42810bec2

    discovery-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.135 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b3e3d39c6f3775dde36790d8…
    follows b2b104710119…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13793: ZNF195 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF195 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.