Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13788

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.795). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13787, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13788
    29 Oct 2026, 05:44 UTC

    SIGLEC8

    microglia, braak

    predictionSIGLEC8 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0539f098564828b9

    discovery+0.10 p=0.795 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.795)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    41c481a9a228ad3518ab27a0…
    follows 94ca1230af45…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13788: SIGLEC8 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.10, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SIGLEC8 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.