Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13777

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13776, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13777
    29 Oct 2026, 05:27 UTC

    THOC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTHOC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba453b176dab85ff

    discovery+0.07 p=0.856 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c8901a90d34495d6f793ad1…
    follows bbf11c5c995e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13777: THOC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for THOC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.