Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13774

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13773, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13774
    29 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC

    RASL10A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRASL10A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1005a6f8b44f7b03

    discovery-0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fdf1cac5db7e8e2c8f72df01…
    follows e2e64ac01a75…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13774: RASL10A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASL10A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.