Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13758

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13757, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13758
    29 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTC

    COL4A6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL4A6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered89b0120b7b33f3c3

    discovery+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    56c455abd30ae3a57822e95d…
    follows 0a4da250aad0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13758: COL4A6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL4A6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.