Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13754

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.720). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13753, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13754
    29 Oct 2026, 04:56 UTC

    EVI2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEVI2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede3b114daf9736843

    discovery+0.14 p=0.720 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.720)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c91293094d35174c8cfa4757…
    follows 493a8766b400…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13754: EVI2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EVI2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.