Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13750

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13749, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13750
    29 Oct 2026, 04:51 UTC

    SF3B4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSF3B4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54ffa935cbd0574e

    discovery-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    102f0c8ab386ec91acf0d120…
    follows aee2fb70e414…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13750: SF3B4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SF3B4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.