Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13742

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.670). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13741, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13742
    29 Oct 2026, 04:40 UTC

    ANAPC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANAPC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered01c331f7e231c3f6

    discovery+0.17 p=0.670 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.670)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d0ad6fafde1d1e352a06122…
    follows f52a82e8764f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13742: ANAPC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANAPC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.