Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13740

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13739, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13740
    29 Oct 2026, 04:37 UTC

    MCM3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCM3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9211f337bb460418

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    906a55bc25bb1bc0969574c1…
    follows 09cd1e7ae40b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13740: MCM3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCM3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.