Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13725

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13724, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13725
    29 Oct 2026, 04:15 UTC

    PROC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPROC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered23af15fb50135683

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3396b2f7caa5de6a95562fc5…
    follows 6e7b9d343b0d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13725: PROC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PROC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.