Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13721

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.300). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13720, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13721
    29 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC

    TIMM17B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIMM17B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc473a1b6e864a38c

    discovery-0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.300)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    19b4188b900a916fdc4c81d1…
    follows e5e90b0088ba…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13721: TIMM17B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIMM17B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.