Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13715

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.889). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13714, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13715
    29 Oct 2026, 04:01 UTC

    HIGD1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHIGD1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9fc40dc7d7c1407c

    discovery+0.05 p=0.889 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.889)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de191f2eb105eab52c010aa1…
    follows bcb2bd22a7ae…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13715: HIGD1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HIGD1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.