Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13713

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.122). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13712, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13713
    29 Oct 2026, 03:58 UTC

    ARL14EP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL14EP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1d590a719afe84c

    discovery-0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.122)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    92f84cca7538d3a92adc59a6…
    follows 4b1b4959461c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13713: ARL14EP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.12, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL14EP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.