Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13698

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.104). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13697, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13698
    29 Oct 2026, 03:39 UTC

    ARHGAP39

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP39 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered950727853d9fec5c

    discovery-0.58 p=0.104 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.104)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0d688641ec6a06579470b18d…
    follows 660958f5434e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13698: ARHGAP39 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP39 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.