Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13694

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13693, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13694
    29 Oct 2026, 03:33 UTC

    RIMBP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRIMBP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda2570c9edae13abb

    discovery-0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4f9e9e4757c149672e80f13b…
    follows 25e3ff765d51…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13694: RIMBP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RIMBP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.