Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13683

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13682, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13683
    29 Oct 2026, 03:19 UTC

    BTNL8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBTNL8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered85207594301edb59

    discovery+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    replication+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1f659ad38fcc4d7639de328a…
    follows 48d13e5433ef…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13683: BTNL8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BTNL8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.