Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13679

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13678, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13679
    29 Oct 2026, 03:13 UTC

    SLC6A16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC6A16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3e3a21687eadab2d

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.253 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    45f2671e09eac9999e33187b…
    follows 0491efe8e026…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13679: SLC6A16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC6A16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.