Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13677

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13676, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13677
    29 Oct 2026, 03:11 UTC

    CHPT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHPT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0a50b4a5f92e0655

    discovery+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7dbb4a3a7eb4adf731510669…
    follows 37cf94f5516c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13677: CHPT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHPT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.